Jump to content

2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout72.9% (Increase 5.9%)[1]
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,489,504 1,478,120
Percentage 49.70% 49.32%


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 0.38% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan in 1984, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or a crucial swing state, and faced similar political scrutiny to neighboring Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. On election day, Kerry barely carried the state over President George W. Bush. The results in Wisconsin were nearly identical to the results from four years earlier, when Al Gore squeaked by Bush, and the 2020 presidential election when Joe Biden had a similarly narrow victory in Wisconsin against Donald Trump.

As of 2020, this is the most recent election to date in which Wisconsin would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied with Michigan and Pennsylvania for the longest bellwether streak in the nation. This was also only the third time since 1960 (after 2000 and 1988) that it would vote for the losing candidate. Bush is to date the only presidential candidate to win two terms in office without carrying Wisconsin at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state.

Primaries

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]

There were 12 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Lean D
Associated Press Toss-up
CNN Likely R (flip)
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Newsweek Toss-up
New York Times Toss-up
Rasmussen Reports Toss-up
Research 2000 Toss-up
Washington Post Toss-up
Washington Times Toss-up
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Dispatch Likely R (flip)

Polling

[edit]

Pre-election polling had Bush and Kerry winning polls, with neither candidate grasping a strong lead. The last 3 poll averages showed Bush leading 49% to 46%.[3]

Fundraising

[edit]

Bush raised $1,993,040.[4] Kerry raised $1,130,602.[5]

Advertising and visits

[edit]

Bush visited the state 12 times. Kerry visited the state 14 times.[6] A total of between $1.3 million to $3.6 million was spent each week.[7]

Analysis

[edit]

Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in the last four elections before the fifth time in 2004. The urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison tend to vote strongly Democratic. The suburbs of those cities are politically diverse but tend to vote Republican. Counties in the western part of the state tend to be liberal, a tradition passed down from Scandinavian immigrants. The rural areas in the northern and eastern part of the state are the most solidly Republican areas in Wisconsin.[8]

The CNN exit polls showed a dead heat between the two. However, the deciding factor for Kerry's victory was union members who voted for him with 62%, while non-members (83% of the population) voted for Bush with just 52% of the vote.[9]

Results

[edit]
2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Forbes Kerry 1,489,504 49.7% 10
Republican George Walker Bush (Incumbent) 1,478,120 49.3% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 16,390 0.6% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 6,464 0.2% 0
Green David Cobb 2,661 0.1% 0
Write Ins 2,117 0.1% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 869 0.0% 0
Independent Walt Brown 471 0.0% 0
Independent Roger Calero 411 0.0% 0
Totals 2,997,007 100.00% 10
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 72.4%

By county

[edit]
County John Kerry
Democratic
George W. Bush
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 5,447 52.09% 4,890 46.77% 119 1.14% 557 5.32% 10,456
Ashland 5,805 63.10% 3,313 36.01% 81 0.88% 2,492 27.09% 9,199
Barron 11,696 48.86% 12,030 50.26% 211 0.89% -334 -1.40% 23,937
Bayfield 5,845 60.26% 3,754 38.71% 100 1.03% 2,091 21.55% 9,699
Brown 54,935 44.56% 67,173 54.48% 1,186 0.96% -12,238 -9.92% 123,294
Buffalo 3,998 52.67% 3,502 46.13% 91 1.20% 496 6.54% 7,591
Burnett 4,499 48.27% 4,743 50.89% 79 0.85% -244 -2.62% 9,321
Calumet 10,290 40.71% 14,721 58.24% 265 1.05% -4,431 -17.53% 25,276
Chippewa 14,751 48.33% 15,450 50.62% 323 1.06% -699 -2.29% 30,524
Clark 6,966 46.06% 7,966 52.67% 193 1.27% -1,000 -6.61% 15,125
Columbia 14,300 48.38% 14,956 50.60% 299 1.01% -656 -2.22% 29,555
Crawford 4,656 55.04% 3,680 43.50% 123 1.45% 976 11.54% 8,459
Dane 181,052 66.02% 90,369 32.95% 2,828 1.03% 90,683 33.07% 274,249
Dodge 16,690 37.64% 27,201 61.35% 445 1.01% -10,511 -23.71% 44,336
Door 8,367 47.84% 8,910 50.94% 214 1.22% -543 -3.10% 17,491
Douglas 16,537 65.66% 8,448 33.54% 202 0.81% 8,089 32.12% 25,187
Dunn 12,039 51.95% 10,879 46.95% 254 1.09% 1,160 5.00% 23,172
Eau Claire 30,068 54.24% 24,653 44.47% 716 1.30% 5,415 9.77% 55,437
Florence 993 36.45% 1,703 62.52% 28 1.03% -710 -26.07% 2,724
Fond du Lac 19,216 36.23% 33,291 62.77% 529 1.00% -14,075 -26.54% 53,036
Forest 2,509 48.69% 2,608 50.61% 36 0.70% -99 -1.92% 5,153
Grant 12,864 50.92% 12,208 48.32% 192 0.76% 656 2.60% 25,264
Green 9,575 52.47% 8,497 46.56% 176 0.96% 1,078 5.91% 18,248
Green Lake 3,605 35.42% 6,472 63.59% 101 0.99% -2,867 -28.17% 10,178
Iowa 7,122 56.79% 5,348 42.64% 72 0.57% 1,774 14.15% 12,542
Iron 1,956 50.43% 1,884 48.57% 39 1.00% 72 1.86% 3,879
Jackson 5,249 53.97% 4,387 45.11% 90 0.92% 862 8.86% 9,726
Jefferson 17,925 42.56% 23,776 56.45% 414 0.98% -5,851 -13.89% 42,115
Juneau 5,734 46.32% 6,473 52.29% 172 1.39% -739 -5.97% 12,379
Kenosha 40,107 52.48% 35,587 46.56% 734 0.96% 4,520 5.92% 76,428
Kewaunee 5,175 45.91% 5,970 52.96% 128 1.13% -795 -7.05% 11,273
La Crosse 33,170 53.38% 28,289 45.53% 677 1.09% 4,881 7.85% 62,136
Lafayette 4,402 52.48% 3,929 46.84% 57 0.68% 473 5.64% 8,388
Langlade 4,751 42.90% 6,235 56.30% 88 0.80% -1,484 -13.40% 11,074
Lincoln 7,484 47.67% 8,024 51.11% 192 1.22% -540 -3.44% 15,700
Manitowoc 20,652 46.77% 23,027 52.14% 481 1.09% -2,375 -5.37% 44,160
Marathon 30,899 45.40% 36,394 53.47% 766 1.12% -5,495 -8.07% 68,059
Marinette 10,190 45.76% 11,866 53.28% 214 0.96% -1,676 -7.52% 22,270
Marquette 3,785 44.65% 4,604 54.31% 88 1.03% -819 -9.66% 8,477
Menominee 1,412 82.57% 288 16.84% 10 0.58% 1,124 65.73% 1,710
Milwaukee 297,653 61.72% 180,287 37.39% 4,296 0.89% 117,366 24.33% 482,236
Monroe 8,973 45.89% 10,375 53.06% 206 1.05% -1,402 -7.17% 19,554
Oconto 8,534 43.11% 11,043 55.79% 217 1.10% -2,509 -12.68% 19,794
Oneida 10,464 47.48% 11,351 51.50% 224 1.02% -887 -4.02% 22,039
Outagamie 40,169 44.61% 48,903 54.31% 978 1.09% -8,734 -9.70% 90,050
Ozaukee 17,714 33.40% 34,904 65.82% 414 0.78% -17,190 -32.42% 53,032
Pepin 2,181 53.64% 1,853 45.57% 32 0.79% 328 8.07% 4,066
Pierce 11,176 51.09% 10,437 47.71% 263 1.21% 739 3.38% 21,876
Polk 11,173 47.54% 12,095 51.46% 235 1.00% -922 -3.92% 23,503
Portage 21,861 56.11% 16,546 42.47% 554 1.43% 5,315 13.64% 38,961
Price 4,349 49.63% 4,312 49.21% 102 1.17% 37 0.42% 8,763
Racine 48,229 47.48% 52,456 51.65% 884 0.87% -4,227 -4.17% 101,569
Richland 4,501 47.78% 4,836 51.34% 83 0.88% -335 -3.56% 9,420
Rock 46,598 57.90% 33,151 41.19% 730 0.91% 13,447 16.71% 80,479
Rusk 3,820 48.19% 3,985 50.27% 122 1.53% -165 -2.08% 7,927
St. Croix 18,784 44.90% 22,679 54.21% 372 0.89% -3,895 -9.31% 41,835
Sauk 15,708 51.64% 14,415 47.39% 294 0.96% 1,293 4.25% 30,417
Sawyer 4,411 46.66% 4,951 52.37% 91 0.97% -540 -5.71% 9,453
Shawano 8,657 41.23% 12,150 57.86% 192 0.92% -3,493 -16.63% 20,999
Sheboygan 27,608 44.08% 34,458 55.02% 559 0.90% -6,850 -10.94% 62,625
Taylor 3,829 40.12% 5,582 58.49% 132 1.38% -1,753 -18.37% 9,543
Trempealeau 8,075 57.42% 5,878 41.80% 109 0.77% 2,197 15.62% 14,062
Vernon 7,924 53.38% 6,774 45.63% 147 0.99% 1,150 7.75% 14,845
Vilas 5,713 40.80% 8,155 58.24% 134 0.95% -2,442 -17.44% 14,002
Walworth 19,177 39.58% 28,754 59.35% 515 1.06% -9,577 -19.77% 48,446
Washburn 4,705 49.18% 4,762 49.78% 100 1.05% -57 -0.60% 9,567
Washington 21,234 29.30% 50,641 69.88% 592 0.82% -29,407 -40.58% 72,467
Waukesha 73,626 31.96% 154,926 67.25% 1,811 0.79% -81,300 -35.29% 230,363
Waupaca 10,792 40.01% 15,941 59.10% 241 0.89% -5,149 -19.09% 26,974
Waushara 5,257 42.93% 6,888 56.25% 101 0.83% -1,631 -13.32% 12,246
Winnebago 40,943 46.21% 46,542 52.53% 1,111 1.25% -5,599 -6.32% 88,596
Wood 18,950 47.29% 20,592 51.39% 529 1.32% -1,642 -4.10% 40,071
Totals 1,489,504 49.70% 1,478,120 49.32% 29,383 0.98% 11,384 0.38% 2,997,007
County flips

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Bush and Kerry each won four congressional districts.[10]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 54% 46% Paul Ryan
2nd 37% 62% Tammy Baldwin
3rd 48% 51% Ron Kind
4th 30% 70% Jerry Kleczka
Gwen Moore
5th 63% 36% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 56% 43% Tom Petri
7th 49% 50% Dave Obey
8th 55% 44% Mark Andrew Green

Electors

[edit]

Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Gail Gabrelian
  2. Margaret McEntire
  3. Jordan Franklin
  4. Martha Toran
  5. Jim Shinners
  6. Jan Banicki
  7. Daniel Hannula
  8. Steve Mellenthin
  9. Glenn Carlson
  10. Linda Honold

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics". Wisconsin Election Commission. Wisconsin Election Commission. Retrieved September 25, 2020.
  2. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings". Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved July 8, 2021.
  3. ^ "2004 Presidential Election Polls". Retrieved July 8, 2021.
  4. ^ George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President
  5. ^ John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President
  6. ^ CNN.com Specials
  7. ^ CNN.com Specials
  8. ^ Hamilton, Lawrence (September 2006). "Rural Voting in the 2004 Election" (PDF). CORE. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 1, 2024. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  9. ^ CNN.com Election 2004
  10. ^ Swing State Project: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008